Description

This analysis provides a forecast of ETC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-12-28 8.421459 9.678642 11.034310 12.601763 14.360930 16.271046 18.498682
2026-01-04 6.592859 8.294932 10.274857 12.735452 15.697655 19.134337 23.407762
2026-01-11 5.566580 7.430813 9.708434 12.672152 16.400266 20.905838 26.731050
2026-01-18 4.746198 6.688475 9.169600 12.534066 16.934323 22.445966 29.816925
2026-01-25 4.176420 6.171129 8.819780 12.540941 17.571441 24.065160 32.997894
2026-02-01 3.744536 5.779370 8.578547 12.639310 18.294200 25.791981 36.365756
2026-02-08 3.328841 5.356201 8.240357 12.552607 18.726327 27.117527 39.225268
2026-02-15 2.968751 4.970898 7.911634 12.435440 19.082031 28.326432 41.950137
2026-02-22 2.710250 4.709120 7.732976 12.507635 19.690136 29.890062 45.210173
2026-03-01 2.548773 4.580691 7.738044 12.842200 20.684222 32.029103 49.358038
2026-03-08 2.286043 4.259720 7.415342 12.645202 20.860558 32.977838 51.813055
2026-03-15 1.985491 3.843280 6.903764 12.108918 20.474977 33.062302 52.980860
2026-03-22 1.882902 3.762874 6.938060 12.455243 21.491568 35.310306 57.497990
2026-03-29 1.765276 3.643875 6.897603 12.674121 22.314825 37.297811 61.703414
2026-04-05 1.607970 3.434556 6.682939 12.580836 22.618112 38.479686 64.701400
2026-04-12 1.462033 3.230914 6.460125 12.454114 22.851560 39.551118 67.556803
2026-04-19 1.349852 3.080761 6.319637 12.457272 23.295017 40.965715 70.995119
2026-04-26 1.261166 2.968173 6.237998 12.556363 23.900983 42.659906 74.933824
2026-05-03 1.157035 2.812426 6.061948 12.469708 24.175057 43.812491 78.027500
2026-05-10 1.059286 2.659397 5.877944 12.353376 24.385144 44.858652 80.973706
2026-05-17 0.991278 2.563723 5.798000 12.425098 24.929668 46.481709 84.923619
2026-05-24 0.955658 2.536919 5.853384 12.757751 25.960263 48.967764 90.399367
2026-05-31 0.870616 2.387126 5.645273 12.561883 26.004972 49.748646 93.004258